Hottest Summer Ever in Hereford?

When its a bit warm, lets enjoy it - Richard Tice, Deputy Leader, Reform

This was the tone-deaf response by a senior political figure in the UK. He followed up with an old meme popular with climate change deniers from decades ago: "Climate change has always happened. It always will".

Nobody denies that the climate is in a constant flux albeit the changes occur over very long geological time periods. Rapid climate change is generally associated with mass extinctions. We are currently undergoing rapid climate change after a long period of stability during which humankind flourished (Figure 1). We humans have never before experienced such rapid changes in climate - will it mark the extinction of the human race?

Figure 1: Global Temperatures over the Past 2000 Years (h/t Wikipedia)

Probably not and in any case AI may get there first! For millionaires such as Richard Tice, adaptation (e.g. installing air conditioning, the ability to decamp to cooler parts of the world when it gets hot) is easy. Not so easy for the hoi polloi and impossible for third world countries unless they are allowed to emigrate to cooler climes. But then Reform (Tice's political party) is opposed to all immigration.

Another quote from the same Richard Tice speech: "Maybe the smarter thing to do is to adapt to it than think arrogantly that you can stop it". Firstly, most people will not be able to adapt (unaffordable and/or impractical) and, second, we do know how to stop it by achieving net zero as soon as possible. Oligarchs and their ilk have no empathy with 'common people' on which much of their wealth is based. Hence, no mention by Mr Tice of the nearly 3000 heat-related deaths during May-June 2026 heatwaves.

So why are these millionaires and billionaires against net zero? Ultimately, it is all down to money; and, especially their own money for which they never seem to have enough. While Mr Tice's money is predominantly from property, most of the donations to the Reform Party comes from fossil fuel interests; along with the recent boost from cryptocurrencies. 

Video 1: Fossil Fuel Industry is Taking Over UK Political Parties

In the past, businesses (e.g. tobacco, fossil fuels) like to hide behind shadowy organisations such as The Heartland Institute and the Global Warming Policy Foundation. Merchants of Doubt by Naomi Oreskes & Erik Conway describes the underhand tactics used by the tobacco and oil/coal industries to delay action in order to maximise profits.

A lot of people in the UK have been asking how this summer compares with the legendary UK summer of 1976. As you might expect, those who deny or want to minimise the impacts of an increasingly warmer climate, hark back to 1976 and claim we've seen it all before. It is important to note, however, that the summer of 1976 was an extraordinary outlier when UK summers were much cooler. [Americans can substitute the summer of 1936 as a similar outlier]. In contrast, the UK summer of 2026 is part of a warming trend.

Interesting point: the hot summer of 1936 in the USA was during the Dust Bowl period when soil moisture levels were extremely low. The ground and air will absorb more solar energy (and therefore heat up more) when soil moisture levels and air humidities are low (i.e. after prolonged drought). The hot UK summer of 1976 also occurred on the back of an 18-month period of dry weather.

So which summer was warmer? 1976 or 2026? According to the official Met Office data, it was 2026 by a comfortable margin. 2026 had the highest maximum temperature (38.1 ℃ compared to 35.9 ℃), the highest mean temperature (16.5 ℃ compared to 15.7 ℃), the highest average maximum temperature (21.3 ℃ compared to 21.0 ℃), and the highest average minimum temperature (11.7 ℃ compared to 10.5 ℃). Higher overnight temperatures disrupt sleep patterns; hence a 50% increase in the number of tropical nights (when overnight temperatures do not drop below 20 ℃) is not good news. 2026 also had 50% more days with temperatures over 30 ℃.

The summer of 1976 still holds the record for being the sunniest and for the longest consecutive period (16 days) where daily maxima was ≥ 30 ℃. See here for more detailed information.

So, how do the summers of 1976 and 2026 compare for Hereford. Mary and I were in Norwich during 1976 and we certainly remember the summer as hot, dry and sunny. I suspect weather conditions were similar in Hereford. What we can do is look at the last seven summers in Hereford as recorded by my back garden Davis Weather Station.

First of all, we consider the mean daily temperatures averaged over the months of June, July and August (JJA): see Figure 2. Remember that 2025 was the hottest year for the UK, Central England (CET) and Hereford. The summer of 2026 has smashed the record for Hereford by 1.3 ℃. This year is also on schedule to be the hottest year ever in the UK, beating the record set only last year.

Figure 2: Summer (JJA) Mean Daily Temperature for Hereford City (2020 to 2026)

How about the number of heatwaves during the summer (JJA) months. In Figure 3, a heatwave is defined as a period of 3 or more consecutive days where the temperature was 26 ℃ or higher.  As Figure 3 shows, 2022 had more heatwaves than 2026 (joint second with 2025) but this data can be misleading.

Figure 3: Number of Summer (JJA) Heatwaves in Hereford (2020 - 2026)

Let's look at the number of high temperature days (i.e. where the temperature was ≥ 30 ℃) for the summer months (JJA) over the 2020 - 2026 period (Figure 4). Here we can see that the number of high temperature days in 2026 is almost double the next two hottest summers (2022, 2025 - see Figure 2).

Figure 4: High Temperatures Days During Summer (JJA) in Hereford (2020 - 2026)

In summary, I have no problems stating that this summer (2026) was the hottest ever recorded in Hereford. The garden has suffered and we have lost quite a few trees/shrubs and plants. In all likelihood, 2026 will set new temperature records for Hereford and the UK. As of the 16th September, the Central England Temperature (CET) is running 2.5 ℃ to 3.0 ℃ warmer than its 1961-1990 average. That is a very strong indicator of a planet that is overheating!

View from the Rear Window - May 2026

 Before you talk, listen. Before you react, think. Before you spend, earn - Ernest Hemingway

Everything in the garden was looking lovely during May as the weather was very conducive to luxuriant growth. The first 20 days or so had enough sunshine and rain for rapid growth and temperatures were reasonable with no overnight frosts. Everything changed two-thirds of the way through the month when the weather suddenly became much hotter, sunnier and drier. This month's garden photo was taken on the last day of May; plenty of luxuriant green growth, the first flush of roses and the purple-leaved elder in full bloom (Photo 1). May was also notable for the first heatwave of 2026 and the highest May temperature on record for the UK.

Photo 1: Garden View (31st May 2026)

Daily garden photos for May 2026 are collated in Video 1.

Video 1: Daily Photos of the Rear Garden - May 2026

Table 1 summarises some routine weather stats for our garden collected by our Davis Weather Station.  The mercury hit 35 ℃ on two consecutive days (25/26th); smashing the previous record (27 ℃) for our back garden in May!! We saw more hot May days (i.e. > 25 ℃) in 2020 but, again, nowhere near as hot as those in May 2026.

Table 1: Summary Weather Statistics for May 2026
Weather Parameter	Value	Dates
Average Monthly Temperature	15 oC
Maximum Monthly Temperature	35 oC	25th & 26th
Minimum Monthly Temperature	2 oC	12th
Number of Air Frost Days	0
Number of Hot Days (> 25 oC)	10
Monthly Precipitation	39.4 mm
Greatest 24 h Precipitation	15.2 mm	2nd - 3rd
Number of Dry Days	18
Monthly Sunshine Hours (estimated)	213
Highest Wind Speed	45 km/h	13th
Heating Degree Days	143.2
Cooling Degree Days	42.3

Daily minimum & maximum temperatures for May 2026 are shown in Figure 1 (click to see a larger image). No frosty nights and a big surge in temperatures during the final 10 days of the month. From the 22nd to 30th (9 days) the daily maximum was 26 ℃ or higher. Our first heatwave of 2026 and a long one at that.

Figure 1: Daily Min/Max Temperatures (May 2026)

Daily rainfall and solar radiation values - a proxy for sunshine hours - are shown in Figure 2 below (click to enlarge). We enjoyed pleasant springtime warmth & sunshine, with enough rain to negate the need for extra irrigation, for the first 20 days of the month. The final 10 days were brutally hot, sunny and dry during our first 2026 heatwave.

Figure 2: Daily Rainfall/Solar Radiation (May 2026)

With seven years of May weather data, we might just be able to see some indication of trends; although we probably need double this before we can confirm such trends. Normally, 30 years of data are required before one can identify climate trends. Unfortunately, we are changing the climate so rapidly nowadays that we will be able to see trends over much shorter time periods.

In Figure 3, I have graphed the last seven years of temperature data for the month of May. 2020 was an unusual year (start of COVID-19) in the UK. Reduced atmospheric pollution may have boosted local temperatures a little but the main effect was meteorological as the jet stream buckled and placed a persistent block of high pressure weather directly over the UK. Consequently, May 2020 had lots of clear blue skies (due, in part, to an absence of condensation trails as air traffic took a nosedive) and unusually high temperatures. [Note: an absence of condensation trails would have a cooling effect of global temperatures - see here for some basic details)

If we treat the May 2020 data a 'anomalous', then there seems to be an upward trend in mean daily temperatures and maximum daily temperatures. The trend is less visible in the average daily temperatures because the Davis Weather Station only reports average values to the nearest degree (when changes from year to year would be measured in tenths of a ℃). Somewhat disturbingly, the increases in maximum daily temperatures are on an upward trend.

Figure 3: Time Series (2020-2026) for May Temperature Data (Hereford City)

In Figure 4, there appears to be an overall decline in May rainfall levels, albeit with a good deal of scatter. No clear trend in sunshine levels.

Figure 4: Time Series for May Rain, Sun and Wind Data (2020-2026)

The next three figures are taken from the UK Met Office's monthly report for May 2026. May's mean temperature anomalies for the UK are shown in Figure 5. Apart from NW Scotland, average temperatures were 0.5 ℃ to 2.5 ℃ higher than the 1991-2020 reference period. This is hot!! Herefordshire fell within the higher bracket (1.5 ℃ to 2.5 ℃). Our nearby Met Office weather station at Credenhill, records a typical May average daily temperature at 12 ℃. The mean monthly temperature recorded by our garden weather station was 15 ℃; i.e. 3 ℃ higher than the long-term average in good agreement with Figure 5.

Figure 5: UK Mean Temperature Anomalies (May 2026)

As Figure 6 illustrates, with just a few exceptions, May rainfall was average or below average in May. Herefordshire, including Hereford City, experienced mainly below average rainfall. With reference to the nearby weather station at Credenhill, we would usually expect between 53-54 mm of rain in May. Hence the 39 mm of rain recorded by our garden weather station (Table 1) equates to about 70% of the expected value for May. In good agreement with Figure 6.

Figure 6: Relative UK Rainfall (May 2026)

Figure 7 shows that Herefordshire received only average sunshine levels in May. Table 1 recorded 213 sunshine hours this month, slightly above the average for the English Midlands (192 hours). Once again, in good agreement with the Met Office data.

Figure 7: Relative UK Sunshine Hours (May 2026)

Jobs in the Garden

• Mainly transplanting, potting on, etc of cucumbers, bell peppers, tomatoes, aubergines, celery, celeriac, French Beans,
• Sowing beet, parsnip, turnip
• Finish cutting down field beans for hot composting.
• Harvesting asparagus

Flora & Fauna in the Garden

• Blackbird (x2, M&F)
• Blue Tit (x1)
• Collared Dove (x3)
• Dunnock (x1)
• Great Tit (x1)
• House Sparrow (x6)
• Jackdaw (x1)
• Gulls (numerous overhead)
• Robin (x2, adult & young)
• Swift (x4, first seen 3rd May)
• Starling (x8)
• Wood Pigeon (x2)
• Wren (x1)

And finally, a few photos of the garden ...

Photo 2: A Corner of the Paradise Garden (1st May 2026)

Photo 3: The Secret Garden (1st May 2026)

Photo 4: Mountain Ash/Rowanberry in Bloom (1st May 2026)

Photo 5: Bog Garden with Flowering Pitcher Plant (12th May 2026)

Photo 6: Gladioli (21st May 2026)

Photo 7: Sweet Pea (21st May 2026)

Photo 8: Raised Bed Mixture (21st May 2026)

Photo 9: A Single Allium in the Red Acer Bed (21st May 2026)

Photo 10: Looking into the Secret Garden from the Kitchen Garden (30th May 2026)

Photo 11: Secret Garden (30th May 2026)

Mural of Herefordshire Scenes

 I sometimes feel as if I have nothing to say and I want to communicate this - Damien Hirst

On an otherwise unremarkable industrial building in Hereford, an artwork is taking shape. Just round the corner from us is the Heineken Brewery/Cider Plant in Plough Lane. Originally the home of Bulmers Cider since the 1930s, it was taken over by Scottish & Newcastle (S&N) in 2003 before becoming part of the Heineken Group in 2008 when S&N was divided up between Carlsberg and Heineken.

Photo 1: Part of the Heineken Plant in Hereford (h/t Google Street View)

I first noticed the painted mural (Photo 2) at the beginning of June when I was on my way to one of my citizen science water testing sites. A few weeks later, I stopped to talk to the artist, Mark Stewart.

Photo 2: Mural in early June 2006

Mark used to work at the Heineken site in Hereford and the mural was commissioned by them. Acrylic paints are used and the painting is built up in layers. It is a challenging surface to work; not only because of the uneven surface (mortared brick) but also due to the two angles of the brick surface. For this reason, some of the animals (e.g. hare, kingfisher) are composites of different pictures. The scenes all depict flora and fauna associated with Herefordshire. Mark expects to finish in August and the mural will need a final protective coat to weatherproof it.

Here is a photo of one of the panels showing a reflection of Hereford Cathedral in the River Wye. The mallard details have yet to be added at this point (June 6th).

Photo 3: Mallards and Hereford Cathedral Reflection (June 6th 2026)

Herefordshire is known as a cider county and the original site was owned/built by Bulmers. Unsurprisingly, apples feature in a number of the panels.

Photo 4: Apple Trees & Holly (June 6th 2026)

Photo 5: Fallen Apples and Deer (June 6th 2026)

A month later (3rd July) and the work is progressing nicely ...

Photo 6: Apple Blossom, Green Woodpecker and Pearl-bordered Fritillary (July 3rd 2026)

Photo 7: River Wye, Kingfisher and Orchards (7th July 2026)

As soon as the artwork is completed, I'll post new photos

Citizen Science Testing Site - Newton Brook, Hereford

 Never memorize something that you can look up - Albert Einstein

One of my citizen science test sites is in a small steep sided wooded area within the city limits of Hereford. The site is regularly flooded during the winter season when the River Wye is in full spate. It has the feel of a temperate rainforest and is popular with the dog-walking fraternity. Being close to housing estates, shops, etc., it is also a favourite spot for the younger generation (Gen Z??) who like to drink beer and smoke cannabis and, for some unfathomable reason, scatter their litter around & dump supermarket trolleys in the brook.

Figure 1: Test Site U033 on Newton Brook (h/t Google Maps)

Figure 1 shows the approximate position of my test site (X) on the Newton Brook which follows the treeline towards the River Wye. As you can see, it is a short narrow stretch of woodland, about 200 metres in length.

I took this short panoramic video on 29th July 2026 just after I had finished testing. You can see the brook itself in the first six seconds, followed by the path heading north to the River Wye (at 7 seconds), the main wooded area and the path heading south (at 20 seconds) from whence I came and will return.

Video 1: Panoramic View of Surrounding Woodland at Site U033 (Newton Brook)

The brook is currently at historically low levels but is still flowing (just about). The woodland becomes a lake when the River Wye level exceeds 3 metres at Hereford Bridge, the nearest hydrology monitoring station. This can be quite often during the wet season (October to March) as Figure 2 shows.

Figure 2: River Wye Level at Hereford Bridge (h/t Environmental Agency)

If you watched the short video above, you will have noticed that some of the trees are at a funny angle - presumably as a result of the regular flooding. The brook itself is polluted and there is very little evidence of aquatic life apart from the odd minnow and freshwater shrimp. We are hoping Newton Brook will be adopted as part of the Hereford River City Project and upgraded to a 'living' river to be enjoyed by everyone.

I started writing this blog post so I could put up a picture of a wonderful bracket fungus spotted during my last two testing visits. Possibly an example of Dryad's Saddle (aka Pheasants Back)? I have uploaded to the iNaturalist app to see if it can be identified by a more knowledgeable mycologist (fungi expert). First spotted on the 26th July (Photo 1 & Photo 2) when the main 'saddle' was at least two-feet wide.

Photo 1: Bracket Fungi (26th July 2026)

Photo 2: Bracket Fungi Close-up (26th July 2026)

And again, three days later ...

Photo 3: Bracket Fungi (29th July 2026)

Photo 4: Bracket Fungi Close-up (26th July 2026)

I'm surprised it has lasted this long as i had expected some kids would have smashed it to pieces by now.

On the earlier visit (26th July), I also spotted the remains of a pigeon ...

Photo 5: Dinner Leftovers?

Who or what was the predator? Bird of prey (e.g. sparrowhawk), mammal (e.g. fox or badger) or a domestic cat? I'm not sure a domestic cat would eat a pigeon and a fox/badger would be more likely to drag the prey off to a safer place before eating. My money would be on a sparrowhawk - they are seen in the area and, in my experience, often eat where they make the kill.

Breeding Bird Survey 2026

 One advantage of talking to yourself is that you know at least someone is listening - Franklin P Jones

Mary was keen to repeat the bird breeding surveys we carried out in 2024 and 2025; and I was happy to help. Our previous access to the prescribed BTO route (parking in a lane before crossing a large crop field over poorly maintained stiles) had become increasingly difficult. We had met someone on an earlier survey who suggested an alternative place to park and start the walk. This where we headed for our initial reconnaissance visit on the 2nd May 2026. We met the farmer and he was happy for us to park at the farm entrance before commencing our walk.

It was not long before we saw our obligatory hare (see previous visits in 2024 & 2025) ...

Photo 1: Obligatory Hare (2/5/26)

... before continuing our recce making a note of the ground cover (e.g. crop field, wood, hedges, farm buildings, pond) on either side of the route. The first part of the route largely comprised grassland on one side (where we saw three hares including a young one) and crop fields on the other. 

Photo 2: Rapeseed Crop along the BTO Route (2nd May 2026)

Photo 3: Bare Fields Sown or Ready to be Sown? (2nd May 2026)

There were quite a lot of bare fields (Photo 3) that had probably been seeded but with what? Woodland, farmyard and buildings, etc and a large pond were the other main features of the whole route.

When doing a bird survey, I use the Merlin bird app to pre-identify birdsong and provide an indication of which species are around. However, for the official BTO bird count, Mary's ears and eyes are the only 'instruments' allowed to confirm a sighting. During our recce visit, the Merlin app picked up only 11 bird species (Blackbird, Blackcap, Blue Tit, Chaffinch, Chiffchaff, Dunnock, Great Tit, Long-tailed Tit, Robin, Wren, Whitethoat) and the numbers were not great though we didn't go as far as the woodland area. We were hoping this was mainly down to the time of day (noon to 3 pm); the official bird count would be between 7 am and 9 am.

As we headed back to the car, stopping briefly to admire the hares one final time ...

Photo 4: Photogenic Hare (2nd May 2026)

We returned for the first (of two) bird counts on the 16th May. The full bird count is fairly complicated as you have to note the land-type (identified from the recce), species and number of birds, whether flying or not and how far from the path. A simple count of the number and species is set out in the table below. A zero indicates a species previously identified at this site but not on the 2026 count.

BIRD	2026 COUNT
Canada Goose	1
Mallard	8
Tufted Duck	0
Pheasant	1
Swift	0
Feral Pigeon	0
Stock Dove	4
Wood Pigeon	10
Collared Dove	1
Moorhen	0
Little Grebe	0
Lesser Black-backed Gull	0
Buzzard	0
Great Spotted Woodpecker	0
Green Woodpecker	0
Magpie	1
Jackdaw	2
Rook	2
Carrion Crow	7
Blue Tit	6
Great Tit	1
Skylark	2
Swallow	0
House Martin	7
Long-tailed Tit	7
Willow Warbler	0
Chiffchaff	5
Blackcap	5
Garden Warbler	0
Whitethroat	1
Wren	19
Nuthatch	1
Song Thrush	7
Blackbird	17
Robin	11
House Sparrow	0
Dunnock	5
Pied/White Wagtail	1
Chaffinch	13
Greenfinch	0
Linnet	0
Goldfinch	4
Reed Bunting	0

Of the 43 species identified on previous visits (including by other BTO observers), we only saw or heard twenty-six. This could be due to a number of factors including the fact that we (and by that I mean Mary) might be less skilled in identifying bird sounds and sightings. Some of it will be down to luck or weather (it was overcast on the day of the count) or, perhaps, the absence of bird-friendly crops. We'd rather not contemplate the worst scenario: that farmland birds are in decline. We will have to await the full BTO survey to see if this is the case.

We did solve the mystery of the bare fields; they had been planted with maize but the plants were only a few inches high when we did the official count. So not at all bird-friendly.

We didn't spot any hares on our second visit.

The Merlin Bird ID app worked pretty well although it did throw the odd curve ball. On the recce visit (2nd May) it 'identified' the common sandpiper (unlikely). On the official visit (16th May), the app also  'identified' the following: Willow Warbler, Mistle Thrush, and Curlew. Mary could not confirm any of these so they were not included in the official BTO count. Of the three 'ghost' birds, only the willow warbler had been 'sighted' previously at this sight.

We saw relatively few butterflies on our official visit (16th May); probably a little early in the day. There were certainly more on the recce visit (2nd May) which was both warmer and sunnier. There were lots of Orange-tip Butterflies around genreally; this male seemed to be 'courting' a Small White Butterfly who wasn't the least bit interested!

Video 1: Confused Orange-tip Butterfly 'courting' a Small White Butterfly?