Hottest Summer Ever in Hereford?

When its a bit warm, lets enjoy it - Richard Tice, Deputy Leader, Reform

This was the tone-deaf response by a senior political figure in the UK. He followed up with an old meme popular with climate change deniers from decades ago: "Climate change has always happened. It always will".

Nobody denies that the climate is in a constant flux albeit the changes occur over very long geological time periods. Rapid climate change is generally associated with mass extinctions. We are currently undergoing rapid climate change after a long period of stability during which humankind flourished (Figure 1). We humans have never before experienced such rapid changes in climate - will it mark the extinction of the human race?

Figure 1: Global Temperatures over the Past 2000 Years (h/t Wikipedia)

Probably not and in any case AI may get there first! For millionaires such as Richard Tice, adaptation (e.g. installing air conditioning, the ability to decamp to cooler parts of the world when it gets hot) is easy. Not so easy for the hoi polloi and impossible for third world countries unless they are allowed to emigrate to cooler climes. But then Reform (Tice's political party) is opposed to all immigration.

Another quote from the same Richard Tice speech: "Maybe the smarter thing to do is to adapt to it than think arrogantly that you can stop it". Firstly, most people will not be able to adapt (unaffordable and/or impractical) and, second, we do know how to stop it by achieving net zero as soon as possible. Oligarchs and their ilk have no empathy with 'common people' on which much of their wealth is based. Hence, no mention by Mr Tice of the nearly 3000 heat-related deaths during May-June 2026 heatwaves.

So why are these millionaires and billionaires against net zero? Ultimately, it is all down to money; and, especially their own money for which they never seem to have enough. While Mr Tice's money is predominantly from property, most of the donations to the Reform Party comes from fossil fuel interests; along with the recent boost from cryptocurrencies. 

Video 1: Fossil Fuel Industry is Taking Over UK Political Parties

In the past, businesses (e.g. tobacco, fossil fuels) like to hide behind shadowy organisations such as The Heartland Institute and the Global Warming Policy Foundation. Merchants of Doubt by Naomi Oreskes & Erik Conway describes the underhand tactics used by the tobacco and oil/coal industries to delay action in order to maximise profits.

A lot of people in the UK have been asking how this summer compares with the legendary UK summer of 1976. As you might expect, those who deny or want to minimise the impacts of an increasingly warmer climate, hark back to 1976 and claim we've seen it all before. It is important to note, however, that the summer of 1976 was an extraordinary outlier when UK summers were much cooler. [Americans can substitute the summer of 1936 as a similar outlier]. In contrast, the UK summer of 2026 is part of a warming trend.

Interesting point: the hot summer of 1936 in the USA was during the Dust Bowl period when soil moisture levels were extremely low. The ground and air will absorb more solar energy (and therefore heat up more) when soil moisture levels and air humidities are low (i.e. after prolonged drought). The hot UK summer of 1976 also occurred on the back of an 18-month period of dry weather.

So which summer was warmer? 1976 or 2026? According to the official Met Office data, it was 2026 by a comfortable margin. 2026 had the highest maximum temperature (38.1 ℃ compared to 35.9 ℃), the highest mean temperature (16.5 ℃ compared to 15.7 ℃), the highest average maximum temperature (21.3 ℃ compared to 21.0 ℃), and the highest average minimum temperature (11.7 ℃ compared to 10.5 ℃). Higher overnight temperatures disrupt sleep patterns; hence a 50% increase in the number of tropical nights (when overnight temperatures do not drop below 20 ℃) is not good news. 2026 also had 50% more days with temperatures over 30 ℃.

The summer of 1976 still holds the record for being the sunniest and for the longest consecutive period (16 days) where daily maxima was ≥ 30 ℃. See here for more detailed information.

So, how do the summers of 1976 and 2026 compare for Hereford. Mary and I were in Norwich during 1976 and we certainly remember the summer as hot, dry and sunny. I suspect weather conditions were similar in Hereford. What we can do is look at the last seven summers in Hereford as recorded by my back garden Davis Weather Station.

First of all, we consider the mean daily temperatures averaged over the months of June, July and August (JJA): see Figure 2. Remember that 2025 was the hottest year for the UK, Central England (CET) and Hereford. The summer of 2026 has smashed the record for Hereford by 1.3 ℃. This year is also on schedule to be the hottest year ever in the UK, beating the record set only last year.

Figure 2: Summer (JJA) Mean Daily Temperature for Hereford City (2020 to 2026)

How about the number of heatwaves during the summer (JJA) months. In Figure 3, a heatwave is defined as a period of 3 or more consecutive days where the temperature was 26 ℃ or higher.  As Figure 3 shows, 2022 had more heatwaves than 2026 (joint second with 2025) but this data can be misleading.

Figure 3: Number of Summer (JJA) Heatwaves in Hereford (2020 - 2026)

Let's look at the number of high temperature days (i.e. where the temperature was ≥ 30 ℃) for the summer months (JJA) over the 2020 - 2026 period (Figure 4). Here we can see that the number of high temperature days in 2026 is almost double the next two hottest summers (2022, 2025 - see Figure 2).

Figure 4: High Temperatures Days During Summer (JJA) in Hereford (2020 - 2026)

In summary, I have no problems stating that this summer (2026) was the hottest ever recorded in Hereford. The garden has suffered and we have lost quite a few trees/shrubs and plants. In all likelihood, 2026 will set new temperature records for Hereford and the UK. As of the 16th September, the Central England Temperature (CET) is running 2.5 ℃ to 3.0 ℃ warmer than its 1961-1990 average. That is a very strong indicator of a planet that is overheating!