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Photo 1: Crocuses in the Garden (3rd March 2025) |
This BBC article answered the titular question by declaring Spring to be the fastest warming season in the United Kingdom. They were reporting on a study by Climate Central which you can read here. Please refer to the BBC and Climate Central links for further information.
The graphic below was taken from the BBC article and shows how much the seasons have warmed, since 1970, for the whole of the UK. See the Climate Central post for a breakdown into England, Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland.
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Figure 1: Mean UK Seasonal Temperature Changes since 1970 |
So, in order of increased warming, we have Winter, Summer, Autumn and Spring.
I thought it would be interesting to see whether these trends were repeated locally. Since the records from my Davis Weather Station cover too short a time to elicit any climatic change, I decided to use the data (1931 to date) from the nearest Met Office station at Ross-on-Wye.
Initially, I looked at the complete data set from 1931 - 2024 using the meteorological definition of the seasons: Spring (MAM), Summer (JJA), Autumn (SON) and Winter (DJF). The scatter plots for all fiur seasons are presented below (Figures 2 - 5). Note that all temperatures are in ℃ and the regression equations are shown in each figure.
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Figure 2: Spring Temperatures in Ross-on-Wye (1931 - 2024) |
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Figure 3: Summer Temperatures in Ross-on-Wye (1931 - 2024) |
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Figure 4: Autumn Temperatures in Ross-on-Wye (1931 - 2024) |
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Figure 5: Winter Temperatures in Ross-on-Wye (1931 - 2024) |
Interestingly, there is rather more scatter in the Winter plot compared with the other three seasons, possibly indicative of greater weather variability in the winter season. Nevertheless, there are discernible upward trends in temperature for all four seasons over the full 94 years of available data. I have summarised those trends in the following bar chart; the temperature change (y-axis) is the slope of the regression line multiplied by 100 (i.e. the expected change in temperature for a whole century of global warming).
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Figure 6: Seasonal Warming Trends (℃/century) for Ross-on-Wye (1931-2024 data) |
It should be noted that the seasonal order of warming (from lowest to highest) is Summer, Spring, Winter and Autumn. A very different order to the one reported in the BBC and Climate Central articles. There is, however, a very simple reason for this: the different timescales used in the Ross-on-Wye analysis (1931 - 2024) and the BBC/CC analysis (1970 - 2024). If I repeat the above exercise, but restrict the data analysis to the 1970 - 2024 period, then the bar chart looks like this ...
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Figure 7: Seasonal Warming Trends (℃/century) for Ross-on-Wye (1970-2024 data) |
... and the order of seasonal warming is Winter (lowest), Summer, Autumn and Spring (highest) as reported by the BBC/CC.
It is worth taking a second look at
Figures 6 & 7 and particularly the temperature axes.
Figure 7 infers a warming rate of approximately 3 ℃/century since 1970; in other words we're going '
to hell in a high cart'. The warming rate (1.8 ℃/century) looks a little less scary (
Figure 6) over the longer period (1931-2024) because it hides the absence of warming between 1931-1970 and the recent acceleration from 1970.
There is still time to avoid the worst case scenarios that global warming will bring but we desperately need to up our game.